Two Decades Apart, 2004–2025

China added more than four Indias

India’s economy grew five and a half times in twenty years, to $3.9 trillion. China’s grew from $2.0 trillion to $18.7 trillion: the increase alone is more than four Indias. India has grown faster since 2021 and the ratio has slipped from its 2021 peak of 5.8, but the gap in dollars has not yet begun to close.

China makes three of every ten manufactured goods; India makes three in a hundred

China’s share of world manufacturing more than tripled to 29%; India’s rose from 1.6% to 2.9%. China sells 15% of the world’s goods exports, India under 2%. Factories are where farm workers in China found better-paid jobs.

China halved the share of its workers on farms; India cut it by a quarter

In 2004 about half of both countries’ workers were on farms. China is now at 22%, India at 42%, and India’s share rose during the pandemic as workers returned to villages. Farm work is where productivity, and pay, are lowest.

Both countries all but ended extreme poverty, China a decade earlier

This is India’s strongest result against China. Extreme poverty fell from 46% to 5.3% between 2004 and 2022, a fall similar to China’s from 2005 to 2014. China reached zero on this line by 2019.

On health, women’s work, universities and research, the gaps are still wide

A child in India is nearly five times as likely to die before five as one in China, and seven times as likely to be stunted. Six in ten Chinese women are in the labour force against three in ten Indian women. China sends three quarters of young people to college and spends four times India’s share of GDP on research.

The average Chinese uses five times as much electricity as the average Indian

Electricity use tracks factories, air conditioning and appliances. India nearly tripled its consumption per person, but China quadrupled from a higher base. India’s 2023 level is below China’s in 2004.

China cut fine-particle pollution by a third in six years; India’s fell less

After record smog in 2013, Beijing ordered coal plants shut, factories moved and heating switched to gas. Average exposure fell from 58 to 38 µg/m³ by 2019. India’s fell from 76 to 60 over the same years and remains among the highest in the world.

India now attracts more foreign investment, is younger and is free to argue

China’s foreign investment inflows collapsed after 2021 amid trade tensions; in 2024 India received more. China has begun to age before getting rich, with one person in seven over 65 and one birth per woman. India has a younger workforce and a free press and elections, which give it a way to correct course that China lacks.

Three numbers that need a second look