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R
Rich Country, Poor Citizens
Epilogue

What 2036 Could Look Like

Sixteen numbers that voters can check — and what they will tell us about whether India turned its growth into development.
Targets
16
each reached somewhere at India’s income, or promised by India itself
Checkpoints
2029 · 2031 · 2034
general elections and the halfway mark
Who checks
Citizens
with independent data, published on time
The distance

Most targets need India to move faster than it did in the last twenty years

For targets with a comparable 2004 figure: progress per year needed to 2036, against progress per year achieved 2004–2024, in units of each measure. Tap or hover a row.
Most targets need India to move faster than it did in the last twenty years

Out-of-pocket health costs, stunting and farm employment fell steadily; holding or modestly raising that pace reaches the targets. Public health spending must rise three times as fast as it did, and child wasting, which barely moved, needs a change of a different order. Manufacturing, women’s work and road deaths moved the wrong way for twenty years. Those three need reversals, not acceleration, and are the hardest promises on the card.

Source: Calculated from the baselines and targets in Part VII. Rate needed = (target − latest value) ÷ years to 2036; rate achieved = (latest − 2004) ÷ 20.
The card

Sixteen numbers to 2036

Today, the halfway mark for 2031 on a straight path, and the 2036 target, grouped by what growth must buy
Sixteen numbers to 2036
Source: Targets proposed in Part VII; anchors noted beside each. Halfway marks assume steady progress from the latest value.
The calendar

When each number can be checked

A proposed release calendar for the data behind the card, 2026–2036; ★ marks a general election
When each number can be checked

Some numbers come every year; others depend on surveys India has run late or not at all. If the Census, the family health survey and a learning assessment are not on this calendar, the card cannot be filled in, and the first promise to hold a government to is that they will be.

Source: Census per the Registrar General’s 2027 schedule; other surveys at proposed intervals. General elections due 2029 and 2034.
The takeaway
India has shown it can build at a speed few countries have matched. The next decade will show whether it can make that growth felt: in a child’s height, a woman’s wage, a safe road home and air fit to breathe. The numbers will say. Citizens should be able to read them.
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Appendix